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Probabilistic Failure Updating using Bayesian Methods

Project Code: 0901-07


To transfer models for probabilistic failure updating using Bayesian approaches based on the RISPECT research for more wide-ranging and advanced applications in other industrial sectors.

Project Outline

Current methods for Bayesian updating of probabilistic analysis used in different industrial sectors will be reviewed and compared with those being developed in the RISPECT project. This will add value to TWIs contribution to the RISPECT project in the areas outlined above, which will be supported by the CRP. As new methods are developed, TWI will evaluate their potential application to other sectors and develop its own analysis tools and software that can be used for Bayesian updating.

Later in the project, TWI will provide some example applications of Bayesian updating within other structural integrity contexts, such as pressure vessels and offshore structures. Updating could be undertaken on the basis of availability of new information on defect frequency and size distribution, material properties, and the outcome from expert elicitations of failure probability.

Relevant Industry Sectors

Shipping, Oil and gas, Power (particularly nuclear)

Technical and Economic Benefits

The work will enable more effective use of inspection and test data for greater efficiency in the management of structural integrity and greater resolution in the assessment of risk on a rolling basis.

The methods proposed to be developed can be applied to update any forecast as and when new information becomes available. They potentially have numerous applications to solving different industrial problems in a variety of fields.

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